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There will be times before you handicap or bet a sporting event that you will want to understand what the betting market expects out of the game. To do this you will calculate what is called the no-vigorish or mid-market price.
The no-vigorish price will help you better understand how often the market expects a given team to win a game, and the no-vigorish price will also help you better understand how often the market expects a total to go over or under the listed total.
Calculating the No-Vigorish Price for Money Lines
You can calculate the no-vigorish price for most games fairly easily using the following formula:
(Favorite Money Line - Underdog Money Line) ÷ 2
Example: Calculating the No-Vigorish Price for a Typical Money Line
To calculate the no-vigorish price for a game in which the favorite is listed at -130 and the underdog is listed at +120 perform the following calculation:
(-130 - 120) ÷ 2 = -125
Using a money line converter you can see that the market expects the favorite to win 55.56% of the time.
There are rare cases in which the favorite and underdog price are both negative, so to calculate the no-vigorish price for these instances see the section on point spreads and totals below.
Calculating the No-Vigorish Price for Point Spreads Totals
There are times, however, in which the odds are not the same yet they're both negative in form that causes the formula above to produce the incorrect no-vigorish price.
To handle these cases you will want to use the formula below:
{[(|Favorite Money Line| - |Underdog Money Line|) ÷ 2] + 100} x -1
Note: |Favorite Money Line| and |Underdog Money Line| denote the absolute value of the favored side and underdog side, respectively.
The formula above will provide you with the no-vigorish price for the favored side.
Example: Calculating the No-Vigorish Price for Adjusted Total Odds
To calculate the no-vigorish price for a game in which the OVER is priced at -115 and the UNDER is priced at -105 perform the following calculation:
{[(115 - 105) ÷ 2] + 100} x -1 = -105
Using a money line converter you can see that the market expects the OVER to take place 51.22% of the time.
Summary
Using the formulas provided in this article you should be able to calculate the no-vigorish price for any listed money line, point spread, total, or other proposition.
Use the money line converter for help converting the money lines calculated using the formulas in this article to their associated probabilities.
- Ryan J. Parker | Ryan's sports betting blog
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