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Before you bet an NHL team on the money line, you should consider if betting the puck line provides value. This article will help you determine if the puck line is a good bet.
What is the Puck Line?
The puck line is similar to a point spread in football or basketball. The spread, however, is always fixed at 1.5 goals. The favorite will lay -1.5 goals, while the underdog will get +1.5 goals. To cover -1.5 goals the team must win by 2 or more goals. Similarly, to cover +1.5 goals the team must lose by exactly 1 goal or win the game outright.
Another difference between the puck line and a typical point spread is that the odds are rarely listed at -110. This is because there is a high probability that a team will win by exactly one goal.
The Three Puck Line Factors
Puck line odds are affected by three factors: the team's probability of winning, where the game is being played, and the average number of goals scored. As such, to properly value a puck line, you must take these three factors into account.
Factor #1: Team's Probability of Winning
This is the most important factor when calculating puck line odds. A team with a higher probability of winning is more likely to win by more than 1 goal.
Factor #2: Home versus Road Games
A team that is playing at home is more likely to win by more than 1 goal than a team playing on the road. For example: a team with a 55% chance of winning a game with an average of 5.5 goals scored is 2% more likely to win by more than 1 goal when at home. In other words, this team is 2% more likely to win by exactly 1 goal when on the road.
Factor #3: Average Goals Scored
The final factor in calculating puck line odds is the average goals scored. As the average number of goals increases, the probability winning by more than 1 goal increases.
The Impact of These Factors
The graph below illustrates the impact these three factors have on puck line odds.
Using the home team probability of winning and average goals scored, this graph shows the probability of the home team winning by more than 1 goal.
Should You Bet the Puck Line?
The graph above can help you determine if you should bet the puck line. Based on your expectations for the home team probability of winning and average goals scored, you can approximate the probability that a team will win by more than 1 goal.
Summary
This article provides you with what you need to understand how the puck line works. By following the concepts in this article you will put yourself in a position to make puck line bets that have a positive expected value.
- Ryan J. Parker | Ryan's sports betting blog
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