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Because of the way football games are scored, some point spreads are more important than others. These point spreads are commonly referred to as the key point spreads.
These key point spreads are: 3, 7, 10, and 6.
To understand why these point spreads are important, you must take a look at the NFL's margin of victory distribution:
The graphic above shows the relative frequencies for the specified margins of victory for regular season games during the 2002-2003 through 2006-2007 NFL seasons.
The numbers 3, 7, 10, and 6 are key because they make up 38% of all margins of victory in the NFL.
The number 3 is the most important as it has a relative frequency of 16.26%. The number 7 is next on the list with a relative frequency of 9.77%, which makes the number 3 a little over 1.5 times as important as the number 7. The number 10 has a 6.57% relative frequency, and the number 6 has a 5.79% relative frequency. This makes the number 3 about 2.5 times as important as the number 10 and 2.8 times as important as the number 6. As such, when you're looking to place a bet on a team to cover the point spread, always ensure you're getting the best number possible, especially if the point spread is one of the key numbers.
The Difference between Playing at Home and Away
When handicapping a game you will want to separate the home and away distributions, as some numbers are slightly more important for a visiting team than they are for a home team.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the home team wins:
When the home team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 15.45% for the number 3; 10.43% for the number 7; 6.78% for the number 10; and 4.89% for the number 6. Another thing to note about this distribution is that the number 14 is almost as important as the number 6, as it has a relative frequency of 4.61%. (This is a moot point, however, as you should rarely lay 14 points in the NFL; so rare, in fact, that it's best to never consider laying 14 points.)
For visiting teams, however, these key point spreads mean a little more than they do for teams playing at home.
Pictured below is the margin of victory distribution when the away team wins:
When the away team wins, the relative frequencies for the key point spreads are as follows: 17.38% for the number 3; 8.87% for the number 7; 7.02% for the number 6; and 6.28% for the number 10. Based on this data, the number 6 is slightly more important than the number 10 when betting visiting teams.
It's also worth nothing that the number 4 is important as well, as it has a relative frequency of 5.36%. The number 14 is again almost as important when a relative frequency of 5.18%, but again, it's best to never consider laying 14 points, so it isn't worth taking into consideration when placing a bet.
Always Shop
Now that you know the relative importance of key point spreads in the NFL, it is imperative to always shop for the best number, regardless of the point spread. That said, getting a better number than one of the key point spreads will provide you with the most benefit.
Checkout the article How To Calculate NFL Point Spread Odds to better understand how to calculate NFL point spread odds based on the margin of victory distributions presented in this article.
Also, to calculate NFL point spread odds checkout the NFL point spread calculator.
- Ryan J. Parker | Ryan's sports betting blog
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