Posted by Ryan

I feel like I’ve hit the jackpot today. This is the most amount of expected value I’ve had in one day in a long time. I’ve found a lot of good prices all over the place, so if you shop around you shouldn’t have a hard time finding some value.

The 6 prices I bet are:

Red Sox @ Devil Rays: TAM Team Total under 4.5 (-120)
% of Bankroll: 0.95%
Pirates @ Reds: PIT Team Total under 4 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.79%
Padres @ Rockies: COL Team Total over 5 (+100)
% of Bankroll: 1.10%
Athletics @ Angels: OAK Team Total under 3.5 (-125)
% of Bankroll: 0.73%
Blue Jays @ Mariners: SEA Team Total under 4 (-120)
% of Bankroll: 1.49%
Cubs @ Giants: CHC Team Total under 4 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 1.29%

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Posted by Ryan

I don’t know what happened to my brain on Saturday, but I wasn’t too happy about making two bad bets that (in poetic fashion) lost. At least the Athletics were able to keep from going over 3.5.

Today I can at least take some solace in knowing that I haven’t made any obviously bad bets. I’ve bet four team total prices:

Mets @ Cardinals: STL Team Total under 4.5 (-150)
% of Bankroll: 0.72%
Red Sox @ Devil Rays: BOS Team Total under 4.5 (-145)
% of Bankroll: 0.91%
Indians @ White Sox: CWS Team Total over 4.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.60%
Cubs @ Giants: SFO Team Total under 4 (-135)
% of Bankroll: 0.89%

Posted by Ryan

Today just isn’t my day. I ended up with an iffy price on the Cubs team total and a terrible price on the Rangers team total.

That said, this should be a good price:

Oakland Athletics Team Total under 3.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.72%

Posted by Ryan

The Yankees team total under 5.5 -105 is a fabulous price. Hopefully someone out there is able to get the same price as I did. I wouldn’t have any issues with betting a smaller amount at under 5.5 -115.

The other bet I made involves Randy Johnson. (I hope warning signs are flashing off in your head as they should always be.) Thankfully he will not be batting in this game tonight. I wouldn’t bet anything worse than over 4 +100.

Yankees @ Pirates: NYY Team Total under 5.5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 1.76%
D-Backs @ Red Sox: ARI Team Total over 4 (+100)
% of Bankroll: 0.79%

Posted by Ryan

There are only a handful of games today, but it seems like (for right now, at least) the team total prices haven’t caught up with the market.

The three prices I find with value right now are:

D-Backs @ Red Sox: ARI Team Total under 4 (-140)
% of Bankroll: 1.22%
Brewers @ Braves: ATL Team Total under 4.5 (-150)
% of Bankroll: 1.75%
Angels @ Nationals: WAS Team Total under 3.5 (-140)
% of Bankroll: 0.77%

Posted by Ryan

This game should have a big neon sign next to it with the words: Randy Johnson Alert. There isn’t a lot of value, but if you can find the D-Backs under 4 at -110 or better then it’s worth a bet.

The price I bet is:

D-Backs@Twins: ARI Team Total under 4 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.65%

Posted by Ryan

There are a lot of early games today, but the only value I can find lies with games starting this evening.

The D-Rays under 4.5 -105 is by far the better price, but don’t settle for anything worse than -110 on that price.

Royals @ Cardinals: HOU Team Total over 4.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.77%
Cubs @ Devil Rays: TAM Team Total under 4.5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 1.40%

Posted by Ryan

Lines have been tight over the past couple of days, and today is no different. Until I found the Marlins team total, the outlook for value was very bleak.

The 2 prices I bet are:

Royals @ Cardinals: KC Team Total under 4.5 (-130)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%
Marlins @ Mariners: FLA Team Total under 4 (-130)
% of Bankroll: 2.07%

Posted by Ryan

I’ve bet three prices today, and I just want to say that Randy Johnson scares the shit out of me. The market says under 4.5 -160 is a good price, but I’ll definitely be watching to see if this line steams against me later.

The 3 prices I bet are:

Marlins @ Devil Rays: TB Team Total over 5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 0.66%
Royals @ D-Backs: KC Team Total under 4.5 (-160)
% of Bankroll: 1.21%
Athletics @ Giants: SF Team Total under 3.5 (-135)
% of Bankroll: 0.68%

Posted by Ryan

The market is pretty tight at the moment, but I’ve found these two prices worth betting:

Padres @ Indians: CLE Team Total over 4.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.69%
Yankees @ Astros: NYY Team Total over 4.5 (-130)
% of Bankroll: 1.42%

I’m kind of glad that I wasn’t able to find prices involving the Mets today. I’m not sure I could psychologically handle another blown save in the 9th inning.