Posted by Ryan

There are some small edges in the rest of today’s games, and the Phillies bets represent a couple more bets with negative correlation.

I would not consider betting any of these at alternative prices.

The 4 prices I bet are:

Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 (-255) (B Myers/B Webb)
% of Bankroll: 0.63%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: PHI Team Total under 4 (-140)
% of Bankroll: 0.74%

Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays: TAM Team Total over 4.5 (+115)
% of Bankroll: 0.85%

Baltimore Orioles +2.5 (-330) (D Cabrera/L Hochevar)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%

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Posted by Ryan

Today’s first is with an early game, as the Mets +2.5 -300 is a profitable price.

The other two bets are team totals with games that are taking place later. The only one I’d consider betting at an alternate price is the Twins team total, as over 4 -105 is still worth a small bet.

The 3 prices I bet are:

New York Mets +2.5 (-300) (J Maine/B Penny)
% of Bankroll: 1.03%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: MIN Team Total over 4 (+100)
% of Bankroll: 1.11%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies: COL Team Total under 4.5 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.71%

Posted by Ryan

Most of the value I can find currently is with team totals, although I have bet one alternative +2.5 run line:

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers: DET Team Total over 5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 1.10%
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves: ATL Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.59%
Washington Nationals +2.5 (-280) (S Hill/S Chacon)
% of Bankroll: 0.64%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: CWS Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.75%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: ARI Team Total over 5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 0.65%

Posted by Ryan

There are currently two prices that are positive expected value bets yet are negatively correlated. Although possible, this means there isn’t a high chance of losing both bets. In fact, there is a decent chance you will win both.

More specifically, these prices are:

Boston Red Sox +2.5 (-320) (D Matsuzaka/J Bonderman)
% of Bankroll: 1.84%

Boston Team Total under 4.5 (+110)
% of Bankroll: 0.83%

Posted by Ryan

First, in MLB, I find value with the following team total:

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics: OAK Team Total o5 (+125)
% of Bankroll: 0.94%

Team totals can vary from book to book, so if you can’t find a similar price then it is probably a bad bet.

For the NHL playoffs, tonight’s San Jose / Dallas game has a small edge:

San Jose Sharks +1.5 (-250)
% of Bankroll: 0.79%

You could also bet -255, but that’s a much smaller bet. 0.79% is pretty small as it is.

Posted by Ryan

April made for an interesting month. Although I made money overall, all bets I posted on the blog showed a small loss (-3% to be exact).

As such, I want to emphasize how important it is to scour MLB lines. There are so many games that there are usually good lines to be found after late line moves take place. These are the types of lines I didn’t post, as the game would have already started before anyone saw the post. I also lucked out and got some prices that quickly disappeared, so those rounded out the bets I didn’t post.

Here are April’s results:

# of Bets: 395
Record: 219-155-21 (wins-losses-pushes)
Win %: 58.56%
ROI: 2.47%
Bankroll Growth: 9.65%

I made 395 bets with a record of 219-155-21, for a 58.56% winning percentage. Of all money wagered, 2.47% was returned as profit. Also, my bankroll has increased by 9.65% of its initial amount at the start of the month.

Daily Results

Here is a graph of the daily ups and downs I experienced during April:

Summary

April started out a struggle, as I made some bonehead overbets in MLB by betting a lot of correlated events. This made for some huge up and downswings. After correcting this mistake, I luckily showed steady growth over the rest of the month, as the graph indicates.

How did you do?

How were your betting results in April?

Posted by Ryan

I’ve finally completed my spring courses and associated tests, papers, and final exams. This means I’m finally able to get around to tracking the bets I’ve made in April. I have about 12 more days to go. I hope to have an April results post tonight.

There are some stale alternate lines hanging out there for tonight’s MLB games, and while I don’t expect them to last forever, I figure someone might be able to get some EV from these.

The 5 prices I’ve bet are:

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians: KC Team Total u4 (-155)
% of Bankroll: 1.59%
Chicago White Sox +2.5 (-265) (M Buehrle/S Marcum)
% of Bankroll: 0.86%
Detroit Tigers -2.5 (+190) (A Galarraga/L Hernandez)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%
Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-300) (R Hill/A Wainwright)
% of Bankroll: 1.25%
New York Mets +2.5 (-280) (J Maine/M Owings)
% of Bankroll: 0.75%

Posted by Ryan

This is another small edge, but again you shouldn’t have a hard time finding it:

Montreal +1.5 (-260)
% of Bankroll: 0.58%

Posted by Ryan

This is a small edge, but it’s an edge that you shouldn’t have a hard time finding:

San Jose +1.5 (-255)
% of Bankroll: 0.77%

You won’t get rich quickly here, but these kind of bets will add up over time.

Posted by Ryan

This year’s NHL playoff lines have been very solid. Not much value just floating around to be had.

Tonight, however, I’ve made a bet on Montreal +1.5 at odds of -245. I suspect this won’t last forever, but if you can get Montreal +1.5 at this price (or for a smaller bet at +1.5 -250) then you should have a good price.

Montreal +1.5 (-245)
% of Bankroll: 1.01%