Posted by Ryan

Green Bay Packers +10.5 (+101)

As I mentioned in the earlier post this was another line that, at the right price, would be a profitable bet. Overnight things seem to have somewhat stabalized, and I can get the Packers at a price I feel is appropriate.

This number is just slightly worse than getting +11 or +12, and you don’t see a real increase in value from +10.5 until you get to +13. I doubt this reaches that high, so I’m taking Green Bay now.

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Posted by Ryan

Week 4 marks the last week until you are able to statistically draw an idea as to how a team has played to draw conclusions about how they should play in the future. With that in mind, this will be the last week that we have to restrict plays to juicy numbers that no team has any business laying.

New York Jets +8.5 (-105)

The Colts are good, but they shouldn’t be laying 8.5 points to anyone on the road. The Colts will likely win, but more often than not the Jets will cover 8.5 points at home. Be careful getting this at +9 -110 or so. Getting +9 over +8.5 provides little value, as 9 will only occur roughly 1.9% of the time.

Tennessee Titans +9 (+101)

The Titans seem to be one of the teams that has gotten little respect so far this season. They’re a bad team, but no team is this bad. The Cowboys are “America’s Team”, but like the Colts they have no business laying this many points to anyone on the road. I’m not worried about this moving to +9.5 and missing out, as 9 doesn’t mean much and getting the half point will only slightly increase the rate at which I win, and I will likely have to pay much more than +101.

Other Juicy Lines

The only other line I’m watching is the monday night Packers@Eagles line. You can get the Packers as high as +11 at some places, but they’re listed at around -120, and I refuse to pay too much. I figure it’s likely to move higher later in the week, and if it doesn’t then oh well.

Posted by Ryan

Cleveland Browns +7.5 (-115)

This price opened at a reasonable 4.5, but has since been bet up as you figure it likely would be.

The key here, however, is that as a worst case scenario I give the Browns a 10% chance of winning this game. Using the away team margin of victory distribution the approximate probability the Browns cover 7.5 points is roughly 56.92% (by either winning outright 10% of the time or losing by 7 or less).

A key injury in this game is to Baltimore’s Ogden, a staple on their offensive line. I do, however, assume he plays this game. If he doesn’t go, however, then you can probably justify paying a little more for the Browns as I would then adjust the Brown’s expected winning percentage up to at least 15%.

Make sure you get the best price you can. One book allows you to buy to +7.5 at -121, but this is too much if Ogden goes.

Posted by Ryan

There doesn’t appear to be much value out there right now for Week 3.

I have just one bet now, with possibly one more on the Jags later to come, if they fail to perform well tomorrow night.

Tennessee Titans +10.5 (-103)

It’s possible you can wait to get a better price for the Titans, but I don’t figure this line moves much the other way as the Dolphins haven’t shown they’re the team everyone was touting them to be.

As was seen in Week 2 blowouts can and will happen. Betting for the blowout, however, typically provides a negative expectation. At this price I figure to make a decent return over the long haul (2,000+ bets) with the Titans.

Posted by Ryan

If you’ve had any problems with smartcapper.com over the past day and a half, I apologize.

An update to some of the server software caused everything on the site, except for this blog, to break!

All appears to be fixed now, and everything is currently being updated. If you notice any issues please let me know!

Posted by Ryan

I was wrong–one of the “high” lines moved higher, thanks to the Raiders laying an egg on national TV.

Oakland Raiders +11 (+100)

Thanks to the nice opening performance on national TV the Raiders aren’t likely to find much money going their way this week. As such, a profitable expectation can be had with them at this price. The Raiders might get shutdown and blown out again in this game, but it is not the event most likely to happen.

Posted by Ryan

Cleveland Browns +10.5 (-104)

As I mentioned before the Browns would be a bet at the right price, and getting the Browns at +10.5 (-104) is such a price. Make sure you get +10.5 at -104 or better (pass on -110 if you figure the Browns never win this game).

Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 (-102)

The same logic above applies to the Chiefs. This line is so high mostly due to the status of QB Green. I haven’t even bothered to check on his status, because it doesn’t matter at this price.

Kansas City is going into Denver, a tough place for anyone to play, but even if they don’t have Green a price of +10.5 (-102) provides a positive expectation.

All of the other “high” lines don’t figure to reach the point where a positive expectation can be had if the opponent wins 100% of the time, so these are likely my last plays for week 2. No reason to “guess” as to how a team will play, and as you’ve already seen so far, expect the unexpected.

Posted by Ryan

Houston Texans +14 (-106)

After the Colts won last night this line was released. It’s no question the Colts are a better team than the Texans, but a blowout isn’t likely. Even if the Texans never win this game, they will more often than not cover 14 points.

Posted by Ryan

Early lines are out for next week’s games, and I’ve found one bettable opportunity.

Tennessee Titans +10.5 (-104)

I make this bet now for a few reasons. First, there is a positive expectation with the Titans at these odds even if the Chargers win this game 100% of the time. The Chargers likely win this game, but even if they win this game 100% of the time the Titans will more often than not cover 10.5 points.

At odds of -104 this is a bettable opportunity for me. Most places have this priced at standard odds of -110, which would not make this a bettable opportunity for me if the Chargers win this game 100% of the time.

Because the Chargers have yet to play, you can probably get a better price for the Titans if San Diego performs very well tomorrow night. If the Chargers, however, fail to impress then it is likely this line will move down from 10.5.

If you can’t get the Titans at -104 or better then you can ask yourself if you feel the Chargers really win this game 100% of the time (keep in mind that in the NFL it’s tough for any team to win 100% of the time). If you feel the Chargers do win this game 100% of the time then hope they fail to perform well tomorrow night in the hopes of getting a better price later in the week.

Other Games

The other “outrageous” line is the Browns at Bengals. The best price out there seems to be +10.5 at -110 odds, and it looks as if this opened at 10, so it’s already moved to 10.5. If the Bengals win this game 100% of the time then this doesn’t provide enough of a positive expected ROI for me to make a bet, so I’ll watch this line to try and get a better number later in the week. This will still likely be a bet if the line doesn’t go down, as I don’t feel the Bengals win this game 100% of the time. At the same time, however, there seems to be little risk in waiting for a better price.

Posted by Ryan

Buffalo Bills +10.5 (-120)

As I mentioned in an earlier post the only wagers I make early in the season are on seemingly outrageous numbers. This line has creeped up all week, and it’s gotten to a point where I’m confident there is a positive expectation on Buffalo at this price.

The market price is currently -465, or New England winning the game 82.30% of the time. I assume the worst this early in the season, so for odds purposes I assume the Patriots figure to win this game 90% of the time. At this winning percentage the fair point spread for this matchup is closer to 8.5 points. If you figure the market price is more correct, then the fair point spread for this matchup is closer to 7.5 points.

Assuming the Patriots win this game 90% of the time, I figure the Bills cover the point spread roughly 58.37% of the time, or -140 in American odds format. A point spread of +10 figures to provide value, too, as you expect to push a decent portion of the time. Getting +10.5 -120, however, provides a higher expected ROI.