Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-107) over Philadelphia 76ers
Allen Iverson will miss his third straight game tonight, and I like for the talent loss to finally catch up to the 76ers. Phoenix is a much tougher opponent than Orlando and New Orleans, and they’re coming off a tough loss to Cleveland. Phoenix should win this game by double digits.
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Three plays tonight.
New Jersey Nets +7 (-102) over Detroit Pistons
Detroit is a very good team, but they’ve already beaten New Jersey by 10 points at the Nets place earlier this season. Most teams bring their best game for the best teams in the NBA, and I like for the earlier 10 point defeat to add to New Jersey’s focus in this game tonight. New Jersey should keep this game close and give Detroit a run for their money.
Chicago Bulls +9.5 (-103) over Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is very strong at home, but they should win this game by around 5 points, not 10. Chicago was beaten by Dallas by 8 points in Chicago earlier this season, and typically this means the home team team should take care of business against the team they beat on the road. I feel this is different as Chicago probably gets boo’ed more at home than they do on the road, so they should be relaxed and motivated to play their best.
Denver Nuggets +143 over Sacramento Kings
Denver has had back to back ugly losses to the Clippers, and they’re catching a Kings team still trying to build chemistry after the Peja/Artest swap. Denver has a good coach, and I expect them to be focused on solving their offensive woes against a Sacramento team that really doesn’t play defense all that well as a team. I could have taken Denver +3 (-102), but I took the money line because the difference between Denver winning outright versues covering the 3 points is less than 9% (which is what the break even difference between -102 and +143 is).
Atlanta Hawks -1 (-102) over New York Knicks
The Knicks are terrible on the road. Atlanta hasn’t been too bad at home recently, and they should win this game more often than not.
LA Clippers +4.5 (-108) over Miami Heat
Miami is playing their 4th game in 5 days, which is a very tough spot for NBA teams to play in. LA has had more rest than Miami and should come out with more focus and energy. I expect this to be a close game with LA possibly winning outright.
Milwaukee Bucks / New Orleans Hornets UNDER 186.5 (-104)
New Orleans let the Bucks score 101 points on them in the previous meeting in Milwaukee, so you can be sure the Hornets will focus on defense and keep Milwaukee from out shooting them. New Orleans typically prefers to slow things down at home as it is, and I expect a point total closer to 170 points.
Boston Celtics / Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 185 (-106)
Minnesota let Boston drop 100+ points on them earlier this year in Boston, so I expect this game to prove to be more defensive. Minnesota also likes to slow things down at home and I expect that to be the case in this matchup.
One final play for today’s NBA games.
LA Lakers / Detroit Pistons OVER 194.5 (+101)
This line should be 200 plus as there should be plenty of fireworks in this game. I don’t like for either team to try and slow this game down, and I expect the Lakers to try and spread the ball and get a lot of easy looks as Detroit tries to do whatever they can to keep Bryant from beating them. Detroit should win this game, but there should be plenty of easy baskets for both teams.
Two plays for the mid-afternoon games.
Milwaukee Bucks -3 (+101) over Boston Celtics
Boston is terrible on the road. Milwaukee should win this game more often than not and cover this point spread.
Miami Heat -3.5 (+102) over Houston Rockets
Miami is head and shoulders above Houston, and without Yao Ming Houston is going to have fits trying to cover Shaq. D-Wade or not, Miami should win this game by close to double digits.
Cleveland Cavaliers -2 (-106) over Phoenix Suns
An early morning tilt for the Cavs and Suns in this matchup. Cleveland lost earlier this month to Phoenix, in Phoenix, and you can be sure they’ll want to try a few new things to pull the win out here today. I look for Cleveland to play a more intense game than Phoenix and pull out the win and cover this spread.
Denver Nuggets +135 over LA Clippers
Denver was just embarassed at home by the Clippers last night, so I expect a more focused Nugget team to come into LA tonight. Denver should bring their “A” game tonight, and if they do then they should win providing a decent profit at this price.
Miami Heat -10 (-108) over Charlotte Bobcats
Most teams have matchup problems with Shaq with their best lineups. Charlotte has a lineup filled with 10-day contracts that is having a tough time getting in sync. Miami should be focused tonight after an embarassing loss to Phoenix at home last night. Miami hasn’t proved they can beat an “elite” team this year, but they typically have no problem handling the bottom-tier teams. Charlotte is as low as it gets right now and Miami should win this by close to 20.
New Jersey Nets -103 over Portland Trailblazers
New Jersey is coming into this game having lost the first two games of a four game road trip. Portland has lost two straight as well, but New Jersey is the stronger team and should win this game. Both teams are 10-12 in their respective home/away splits, and both teams are coming in on two-game losing streaks, which is why I believe the line is set where it is at. New Jersey should win by around 5.
Miami Heat -6.5 (-106) over Phoenix Suns
Phoenix recently stuck it to Miami earlier this year, 111-93 in Phoenix. This game, however, is in Miami, and Miami will have the services of Wade (he missed the earlier game due to injury).
Miami will be ready with some new looks for Phoenix and come out of this game with a victory. Miami should win this game by double digits.
I have five plays that look to provide some good value for tonight’s NBA games.
Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 (-110) over Detroit Pistons
Detroit is the best team in the NBA, for sure. Milwaukee, however, is no slouch. Detroit should be favored to win this game, but double digits for this matchup is too many. Milwaukee was beaten by Detroit by 9 points at the Bucks home arena, so you can be sure Milwaukee has a few new wrinkles to try and give themselves a better chance at winning this game. I like for Detroit to win outright, but Milwaukee will be competitive, and the spread should end closer to 5.
Boston Celtics -4 (-105) over Washington Wizards
Boston came close to winning the earlier matchup between these two teams in Washington. Tonight’s game should prove to be a tougher match for Washington, as Boston has performed fairly well at home at 13-8 over Washington’s 7-12 road record. I like for Boston to win and have a score difference closer to 10 points.
New York Knicks -5 (-102) over Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings / New York Knicks UNDER 205 (-102)
It’s hard to imagine Sacramento is prepared to play anyone right now. The Artest/Peja trade fiasco has surely had an affect on the mental state of this team, and with the latest twist–Peja officially going to Indiana for Artest–there is a good chance Sacramento is already thinking ahead to what life will be like without Peja and with Artest. New York should win this game by double digits. The total of 205 is too high and should be closer to 180, if not lower given the circumstances.
Charlotte Bobcats +11 (+103) over Houston Rockets
I have a hard time beliving Houston can beat anyone by 11 points at home. Sure, Charlotte has a crazy injury report, but there’s no way Houston should be laying 11 points to anyone at home right now. Maybe they get things going tonight, but I like the chances of a close, ugly game in this matchup.
