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Handicapping NBA Games for 02/28/2006

Posted by Ryan

Short on time today, but here are today’s picks. 8)

Minnesota Timberwolves / Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5 (+105)
New Orleans Hornets -1.5 (-108)


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Handicapping NBA Games for 02/27/2006

Posted by Ryan

Washington Wizards / Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 183.5 (+106)
Based on recent history, this total should end in the mid 160s. Memphis has the worst of it scheduling wise, as they’re playing their 4th game in 5 days having also played last night. They are at home, though, and I expect them to play a good ball control game. They especially won’t want to run up and down the court on tired legs.

Phoenix Suns -1.5 (-106) over Houston Rockets
The Suns just embarassed Houston in Phoenix, but Houston does not match up very well with Phoenix. Ming is a very small factor in this game, and Phoenix will run and gun even more to get him out. Phoenix should win this game by double digits.

New York Knicks / San Antonio Spurs UNDER 182 (-106)
This should be a good ol’ fashioned defensive showing by the Spurs. New York is terrible on the road, and San Antonio should have no trouble forcing a slow paced defensive game.

Sacramento Kings -14 (-110) over Portland Trailblazers
Portland Trail Blazers / Sacramento Kings UNDER 189 (-106)
Portland will have a tough time keeping up with Sacramento tonight. The Trailblazers aren’t very good on the road, and they also played last night. Sacramento should win this game easily.

Don’t look for a ton of scoring from Portland, and this game has the makings of an ugly 100-75 type of win for Sacramento. Look for a total that’s around 170.

Utah Jazz / Golden State Warriors UNDER 180.5 (-108)
Regardless of Baron Davis’s status tonight this will not be a game where a ton of points are scored. Recent history suggests a number around 160 is about right, but I say if Davis plays you’re looking at 165 or so. Either way there looks to be good value in this play.

Staying away from touts

Posted by Ryan

I found this blog entry by WiseBettor to be a good guideline for someone that’s interested in buying sports picks.

The internet has helped fuel the sports tout who only makes money by selling people plays. Their own picks aren’t good enough, so they reason they can make money by selling them to those that don’t know any better.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/26/2006

Posted by Ryan

Cleveland Cavaliers / Detroit Pistons UNDER 185 (+102)
These teams have met just once so far this season, with the Cavs winning 97-84 in Cleveland. Typically 84 points is enough for Detroit to win, but they didn’t play very good defense. I look for the Pistons to put a strong emphasis on stopping LeBron today, and they will force the rest of the Cavaliers to beat them.

Detroit is the stronger team here, and I expect 84 points to get them a win. This total should end in the mid 170s.

Indiana Pacers / New Jersey Nets UNDER 178.5 (-108)
In the two matchups earlier this year these teams have combined to score at least 189 both times. The most recent meeting, however, was in mid January. Plenty has changed since then, and for Indiana to win this game they must keep New Jersey from scoring a lot of points. This is a big game for both teams, and while Indiana hasn’t been very good on the road they should do a good job of helping force a lower tempo. This total should end in the mid 160s.

Boston Celtics / LA Lakers UNDER 199.5 (+101)
This game features two of the best scorers in the league, but that doesn’t justify the almost 200 point line here. Mathematically the total should end in the mid 180s, and I don’t see any reason for these teams to deviate from how they typically play.

New Orleans Hornets / Portland Trailblazers UNDER 186.5 (+107)
These teams met a little over a week ago in New Orleans, and the Hornets posted 102 points to blowout the Trailblazers by 16. Portland isn’t very good overall, but they haven’t played too bad at home. They have a big void in the middle, but I expect coach Nate to have a game plan set to emphasize defense and keep New Orleans from embarrassing them again. This total should end around 170.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/25/2006

Posted by Ryan

Toronto Raptors / Dallas Mavericks UNDER 197.5 (+100)
These teams combined to score 194 points in Toronto very early this year, and I expect a point total close to that number again today. I don’t expect a game plan change for this game to cause either team to push it more than normal.

Milwaukee Bucks / Atlanta Hawks UNDER 195.5 (-106)
Milwaukee and Atlanta come into this game playing their 4th game in 5 days. Milwaukee played at home last night, and Atlanta played on the road last night. Typically teams playing their 4th game in 5 days will start and end slowly, and I don’t see any reason why that won’t happen in this game. The point total ended at 220 when these teams met here in Atlanta in late January, so I also look for a game plan that will emphasize defense.

Washington Wizards -9.5 (-105) over New York Knicks
New York Knicks / Washington Wizards UNDER 198 (+105)
The Wizards were throttled by the Knicks early in January by 21 points. The Wizards won’t want a repeat performance, and they also have the luxury of playing at home where they are 19-9. The Knicks are still working Francis into the system, so I don’t expect there to be a big change in their recent road play, and they’re just 4-20 on the road.

The Knicks dropped 113 points on the Wizards in the most recent meeting, so I expect the Wizards game plan to include an emphasis on defense. Both teams are playing in a back to back, and the point total should end around 180.

Chicago Bulls / Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 202 (+103)
Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Like a 4 in 5, a 3rd in 4 will affect how teams start and finish games. These teams just played before the all star break, with the 76ers losing by 33 points and a combined point total ending at 201. The 76ers won’t win this game if they let the Bulls score that many points again, so I expect a more defensive minded game tonight. The total should end around 190.

Miami Heat -15.5 (-102) over Seattle SuperSonics
Seattle SuperSonics / Miami Heat UNDER 206.5 (-107)
It’s hard to lay this many points in the NBA, but the SuperSonics will have a tough road tonight. Seattle only had 7 guys available last night against Orlando, and they now come into this game playing their 4th game in 5 days. Most of the Seattle team will be tired, and I expect Miami to control this game throughout. The Heat should win by close to 25 points.

The total is a bit high for this game, even though these teams combined to score 221 points earlier this year. Seattle will have a tough time enforcing an up tempo game, and I the odds of them wanting a fast pace will be low given the rest factor. This total should end around 190.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/24/2006

Posted by Ryan

Orlando Magic -1 (-108) over Seattle SuperSonics
Seattle is coming into this game off a rare road victory, but the Magic have finally ridden themselves of the cancer named Steve Francis. The rule for this game is: “addition by subtraction”. By getting rid of Francis the Magic should actually play better. They should beat the SuperSonics by close to double digits.

Indiana Pacers -9 (-101) over Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks / Indiana Pacers UNDER 188.5 (-105)
The Pacers are coming off a tough loss to rival Detroit last night, but after taking those subjective factors into account the Pacers should still figure to win this game by double digits. Atlanta is not very good, but they’ve beaten the Pacers twice this year. The Pacers should come out on a mission tonight, and they should play with a high intensity.

The last time out the Atlanta Hawks posted 104 on the Pacers, so look for the game plan to call for plenty of defense. Indiana will want to conserve energy, so I expect them to slow down the tempo. This total should end near 170.

Washington Wizards / Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 198 (-107)
The Cavaliers should bounce back from their tough loss to Philadelphia tonight, and they should put a good emphasis on defense. The Wizards beat the Cavs in their most recent meeting in Washington. The Wizards scored 101 points in that game, so I expect Cleveland to put an emphasis on defense as a key to winning this game. The total should end in the mid 180s.

New Jersey Nets / New York Knicks UNDER 189 (-105)
New York will be looking to play defense today after giving up 101 points to the Heat a couple of nights ago. New York will have Steve Francis, but don’t look for him to help push this total high tonight. This game should have both teams fired up, but don’t look for a lot of points. The total should end in the lower 170s.

San Antonio Spurs / Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 171.5 (-102)
Both of these teams love to play defense. The Grizzlies should put an extra emphasis on defense at home tonight after they gave up a huge lead over the Mavericks last night. San Antonio will want to slow it down as well and the total should end in the mid 150s.

Detroit Pistons / Chicago Bulls UNDER 184.5 (-108)
This has the makings of being a sloppy, slow paced type of game. The Pistons dropped 110 points on the Bulls in the most recent meeting, so you can bet the Bulls will want to shore up whatever defensive issues they have. The Pistons are coming into this game off of a big win against heated rival Indiana, and they could have a hard time getting up for this game. This total should end in the upper 160s.

Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-107) over Philadelphia 76ers
Milwaukee is coming off a tough loss to the Nets, while Philadelphia is riding high after a win over the Cavs. The 76ers, however, aren’t very good on the road. Milwaukee plays a pretty good game at home, and they should play with a strong intensity tonight after the debacle against the Nets. Milwaukee should win this game by double digits.

LA Clippers -2.5 (-102) over LA Lakers
LA Lakers / LA Clippers UNDER 196 (-103)
The Clippers come into this game tonight looking for a win. It’s been some time before they’ve tasted victory, but they should finally get a much needed win tonight. The Lakers won the recent meeting by three points, but they’re coming into this game off of a big blowout win over the Kings. The Clippers should be the team playing with more fire and intensity, and they should win by close to double digits.

The last time these teams met the total ended at 221 points. This game should feature more defense than the last, as you can bet the Clippers won’t want the same kind of result. The Lakers converted a twelve 3 pointers in that game, but they aren’t likely to catch fire like that again tonight. This total should end in the lower 180s.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/23/2006

Posted by Ryan

Indiana Pacers / Detroit Pistons UNDER 177 (-105)
The Pacers won the earlier meating this season 93-85 in Indiana. The Pistons will force a slow tempo, forcing the teams to play very good defense to win. Neither team should try and play a run and gun type of game, and this total should end close to 160.

Dallas Mavericks -7.5 (-107) over Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas leads the season series 2-1, but their two wins have come in Memphis. Dallas is a very strong team, and they play very good basketball at home. Memphis is a sub 0.500 road team, and they will have a tough time hanging with Dallas in this game. The Mavericks should win by double digits.

Sacramento Kings / LA Lakers UNDER 198.5 (-105)
These teams combined for 227 points in late January, but they shouldn’t break the 190 point mark in this game. The last game went into overtime, and without counting the overtime points the point total was still 208. This game will be in LA, and a different game should be played.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/22/2006

Posted by Ryan

Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (-107) over Seattle SuperSonics
Seattle SuperSonics / Atlanta Hawks UNDER 210 (-110)
Neither team is very good, but Atlanta is definitely better at home than Seattle is on the road. Both teams are playing a back to back, and both teams are coming off a game against a top team on the road. Neither team performed very well last night, so neither team should have a huge advantage because of playing last night. Atlanta has, if anything, a small edge because they’re at home and not playing on the road again.

Atlanta should win this game by close to double digits. They lost by 8 to Seattle on the road earlier this month, but now they’re at home and should perform much better. These teams don’t play much defense, but 210 is too high for this game. The total should end somewhere in the upper 190s.

Cleveland Cavaliers +115 over Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland Cavaliers / Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 194.5 (-103)
Cleveland should be favored to win this game. They’re playing a back to back, but they were at home last night and really didn’t have to work too hard against a bad Orlando team. Both teams have split the two meetings so far this year, with the away team winning both games. Cleveland should change the game plan up a little bit tonight to get a needed win against this Eastern conference foe.

This total should end in the mid 170s. These teams combined to score 195 points in their most recent meeting in Cleveland, but the Cavs should put an emphasis on defense and try to keep the 76ers from scoring 100 points on them again.

Miami Heat / New York Knicks UNDER 198.5 (-105)
New York does not do a very good job of scoring points at home. They’re not a very good team, and they have a hard time forcing any type of tempo on another team. The Heat shouldn’t push the pace here, and the total should end in the mid 180s.

New Orleans Hornets -5.5 (-109) over Utah Jazz
It’s easy to see neither team played very well last night. New Orleans, however, gets to play at home where they are a solid 19-8 against a Utah team that is sub 0.500 on the road. These two teams will play again in a few days at Utah, and the Hornets should be motivated to make sure they at least get a split. New Orleans should win this game by double digits.

LA Clippers +4.5 (-102) over Houston Rockets
LA Clippers / Houston Rockets UNDER 183 (-106)
The Rockets have little to no home court advantage. They are a horrible 8-16 at home, and they can’t blame that on T-Mac and Ming. For whatever reason, the Rockets just aren’t getting it done at home. T-Mac is having some sort of personal issues, further hurting the Rockets chances at a playoff spot.

The Clippers are playing a back to back, but they should still be a very slight favorite to win this game. Houston, however, should not be laying this many points at home. The Clippers allowed Houston to score 128 points on them a little over a week ago, so I expect defense to be a very big part of tonight’s game plan. This should be a close, low scoring game that has the makings of being won by a last second shot.

Portland Trailblazers -3.5 (-101) over Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte Bobcats / Portland Trailblazers UNDER 191.5 (-106)
Neither team is very good, but the Bobcats are just 4-23 on the road. Both teams played last night, but the Bobcats were in Denver last night and they could be pretty worn out. Portland is 1 game under 0.500 at home, and they should win this game by double digits. Don’t look for much scoring in this game, though. This total should end closer to 170.

Handicapping the NBA: Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Posted by Ryan

Sacramento Kings -6.5 (-105) over Golden State Warriors
Coming into this game tonight the Warriors might not have the services of Baron Davis (I assume this is why the line was not posted last night).

Regardless of Davis’s status, the Sacramento Kings should win this game handily. They have continued to play with a fire and intensity not seen before the trade for Artest. Golden State is 9-14 on the road, while Sacramento is 17-11 at home.

Sacramento is still in the hunt for a playoff spot, and they will need to start the 2nd half of the season with a good start. The Kings should win this game by 10+ points.

Handicapping NBA Games for 02/21/2006

Posted by Ryan

The All Star weekend has come and gone. Now it’s time to make some $$ in the second half of the NBA season! A full slate for Tuesday and I like a lot UNDERs. :)

(There is currently no line available for Golden State vs. Sacramento)

Orlando Magic / Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5 (-105)
This number is a bit high for this matchup. Based on recent performance, this total should end in the mid 170s. Orlando only scored 84 points in their last trip to Cleveland, but they aren’t likely to force the Cavaliers to play a higher paced game.

New Orleans Hornets / Indiana Pacers UNDER 183 (-105)
This total should be closer to 170. Indiana will dictate a slower game, and they like to emphasize defense.

Washington Wizards -6 (-103) over Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves / Washington Wizards UNDER 193.5 (-105)
Minnesota has issues at the point guard position, and until they can resolve them they are going to have a tough time hanging with most NBA teams. Washington has been lights out at home recently, and they’re in a good position to continue their terrific play at home. This game shouldn’t be high scoring, and the total should end in the mid 170s.

Detroit Pistons -14 (-105) over Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks / Detroit Pistons UNDER 191 (-109)
The Hawks upset the Pistons earlier this month in Atlanta, and the Pistons should be focused to show the Hawks how they really play. Atlanta is just 5-20 on the road, while Detroit is 23-2 at home. The Pistons should win this game by 20+ points. Staying away from a high spread like this one coming off the All Star break is typically a good idea, but the core of the Pistons have been with their coach in Houston so I do not expect a drop off in play.

Toronto Raptors / Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188.5 (-108)
Memphis does not typically get into a run-and-gun type of game when they are at home. The Grizzlies are the stronger team in this matchup, and they should force a slower tempo to this game. This total should end around 170.

Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-107) over New Jersey Nets
New Jersey Nets / Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 178.5 (-108)
Milwaukee is a fairly strong home team having posted a 17-9 record, while New Jersey is not a very good road team with a sub 0.500 11-16 record. Milwaukee should be focused for this game, as they were blown out by the Nets in New Jersey earlier this month. New Jersey doesn’t do a good job of scoring points on the road, and Milwaukee doesn’t typically force a run-and-gun type of game. This total should end closer to 160.

Seattle SuperSonics / San Antonio Spurs UNDER 195.5 (-110)
San Antonio is a well coached team that likes to play good defense and slow the game down. Seattle isn’t a very good team, and they should let San Antonio dictate the tempo. The trading deadline is coming up soon, and Seattle’s players will be more interested in if they’re being traded than how they’re going to play San Antonio. This total should end in the low 180s.

Dallas Mavericks -9 (+100) over LA Clippers
LA Clippers / Dallas Mavericks UNDER 192 (-105)
Dallas is one of the best teams in the NBA, and the Clippers are coming into this game trying to find out just how good they really are. The Clippers showed little emotion in the games leading up the All Star break. Dallas, however, has been very strong and they should be motivated to beat one of the top teams in the West. They’ve already beat them in LA, and they should take care of business at home in this game. The total is a bit high, and it should end closer to 180.

LA Lakers -10 (-103) over Portland Trailblazers
Portland is terrible on the road, and they come into this game with a 6-20 record on the road. The Lakers should player the Trailblazers in this game, and it appears as if Portland will play this game without much of a presence in the middle. Look for Kobe & Co. to have their way with Portland.