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New Jersey Nets -6.5 (-105)
New Jersey is on fire right now, and the Hawks shouldn’t be prepared to put it out tonight. Atlanta is coming off an emotional win vs Indiana, and thanks to Al Harrington they have done a good job preparing and focusing on the Pacers.
After the Pacers, however, the Hawks typically revert to form: playing bad basketball. New Jersey should bring their top game tonight, and a Nets win by double digits is likely.
Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-104)
Phoenix is playing their 4th game in 5 days, but the effects of not having Bosh are being felt by the Raptors. Phoenix played a solid game last night in Indiana, but they should face a stiffer test from the Raptors tonight.
Phoenix will likely win this game, but there is a good chance they play without much emotion and intensity. Toronto has a decent shot at winning this game, but the value lies in the points here.
Chicago Bulls / Charlotte Bobcats OVER 205 (+103)
Charlotte is “healthy”, per se, and they’ve been playing typical Bobcats basketball recently: take plenty of shots, score a lot of points, but play little defense.
Charlotte matches up well with the Bulls, and the Bobcats should have no trouble forcing this into a quicker, fast paced type of game. Look for a point total closer to 220 with this matchup.
Milwaukee Bucks / Detroit Pistons UNDER 189.5 (-105)
Milwaukee will likely be without TJ Ford for a few more games, and although his replacement has been playing decent in his absence the real test will come tonight as they face a very tough Pistons team in Detroit.
Milwaukee had a “lucky” type of win versus Toronto (Bosh left in the 1st half, and Milwaukee somehow got the game to overtime to finally win). In their next game, they amazingly broke 3 point scoring records vs the Suns giving them a huge win. This is not the Bucks typical form, and the Pistons shouldn’t have a problem locking down the Bucks.
This point total should be in the 170s.
Indiana Pacers +141
Tonight the Pacers come into this game versus Phoenix coming off a loss versus lowly Atlanta, while the Suns ride their own two game losing streak into Indiana. Both teams will be motivated, and this play comes down to the odds, as all the plays do.
At home against top teams the Pacers typically put forth a very strong effort. This game is closer to a PICK’EM, and having a packed arena for the retiring of Reggie Miller’s jersey should fuel the Pacers home court advantage.
Indiana played last night, but make sure you don’t over handicap them for this.
LA Lakers +171
I actually like for LA to have a better chance of beating San Antonio than I do Indiana beating Phoenix. Both teams should be rested, and I would expect everyone to be healthy.
San Antonio is coming off a big win over an over-confident Clipper team. Although they were without Parker, everyone else picked up the slack and fueled the team to victory.
Look for a stronger effort from the Lakers tonight. San Antonio has already won in LA once this season, and beating a team on their home court twice is tough to do. A few days after that game LA went to San Antonio and beat the Spurs, so the Lakers should have the tools necessary to win this game.
Dallas Mavericks +121
Dallas should play with focus tonight after the loss to Detroit, and they aren’t a bad road team. Cleveland has won some close games against bad teams, but Dallas should be a small favorite to win this game.
Philadelphia 76ers +115 1st Quarter
Detroit Pistons / Philadelphia 76ers OVER 188 (-105)
Detroit played last night, and they beat a tough Dallas team. They’ve already beaten the 76ers once in Philadelphia by 7 points (the most recent meeting between these two teams).
Philadelphia should play with more emotion and intensity early, and they have a good shot at winning the 1st quarter (more so than the line would indicate).
In the most recent meeting Philadelphia was held to just 80 points, and that’s not typical of the style of ball they like to play at home. I look for them to push the ball and make this an up and down game. Detroit should play along, and this total should be around 200.
Denver Nuggets -7 (-103)
Utah Jazz / Denver Nuggets OVER 199.5 (-105)
Utah mathematically has a chance to catch up with Denver, so look for the Nuggets to be focused tonight.
Utah is playing better with Boozer in sync now, and they’re coming off a blowout win over New Orleans. Denver, however, won’t roll over like the Hornets did and they are likely to win by double digits.
Denver loves to run at home, and this game should be back and forth without much defense.
Sacramento Kings -5.5 (-109)
Sacramento is in a mini-funk, but they’re catching the Trail Blazers at the perfect time to fix their woes.
Portland’s head coach has decided he wants to try three guys out at point guard, and tonight it is likely for a Jack to take his turn. Jack has played in every game for Portland this year, but he has only started one game which was at SG.
Portland will likely to be out of sync for much of the game, and a double digit Kings win is likely.
New Orleans Hornets / Golden State Warriors UNDER 196 (-105)
Neither team has much to play for, and more often than not they shouldn’t surpass this number. New Orleans hasn’t been lighting the scoreboard up on the road, and Golden State (without Davis) is more of a 85-90 type team at home.
Dallas Mavericks / Detroit Pistons UNDER 179 (-105)
This game should be all about defense. Dallas blew out the Pistons earlier this year, and although they say it’s not a big deal they definately don’t want that to happen again.
Dallas is finally getting healthy, and their overall defense should improve, too. Detroit is coming off a home loss to the Nets, and they don’t lose many games at home.
This total should be closer to 160, as the motivation and emphasis should be slowing down the game and keeping points at a premium. It should be a good one.
Atlanta Hawks / Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5 (-102)
These teams have met twice so far this year, and neither time did they go over this number. Recently, however, these teams have been scoring in bunches, and they have not played much defense. This type of play should continue and this total should be closer to 215.
Washington Wizards / Sacramento Kings OVER 205.5 (-103)
Sacramento is coming off a tough loss at home, and they didn’t score very many points. They won’t want that to happen again, and they’re facing the perfect team to score on. Washington plays no defense, and they love to score, too. This total is a little low, and should be closer to 215 as well.
LA Clippers +115
This is the only side I have for today. This will be a highly contested game, but the Clippers should be slight favorites here. They play some good ball at home, and they’ve done a good job of taking out the top teams in the West on their home court.
The Spurs are coming off a loss, but that doesn’t mean they should be favored. Regardless of who wins, this is a great price for the Clippers.
Phoenix Suns -1 (-103) 1st Quarter
Phoenix Suns / New Jersey Nets UNDER 207 (-104)
New Jersey will have a tough time matching Phoenix’s intensity early in this game, as they played last night and got a hard fought win over the best team in the East.
Utah Jazz -7.5 (-102)
New Orleans Hornets / Utah Jazz UNDER 184 (-104)
New Orleans is playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and it’s time for the Jazz to get out their frustration. The thin air won’t make it any easier for the Hornets, and this has the makings of a very ugly game.
Golden State Warriors -1 (-104)
Washington Wizards / Golden State Warriors OVER 213.5 (-104)
Golden State is playing very well right now, and although it’s possible they let down vs the Wizards tonight they should still be a larger favorite than this.
Milwaukee Bucks -5 (+100) over Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee should have TJ Ford back tonight, and they should play with plenty of emotion and focus tonight. They’re still playing for playoff positioning, and every game counts for them.
The Bucks have a huge lead vs the Raptors in Toronto recently, but they got a “bad beat” and ended up losing the game by one point. Don’t look for them to let up tonight, and they should win this game by double digits.
Boston Celtics -5 (-103) over Chicago Bulls
These teams are coming into this game from different directions. Boston is coming off of a bad loss to Cleveland on the road, and the Bulls had a big win over New Orleans at home.
Boston plays much better at home, and the Bulls are confident (hoping?) they’ve fixed their playing trouble by mixing up the starting lineup. Today will be the true test fo the Bulls, and they will have a tough time matching the Celtics’s intensity.
Paul Pierce is quoted as saying this is a “huge” series with the Bulls (they play again on 04/01 in Chicago). Boston must win this game if they want to have any playoff hopes, and they should do so by double digits.
Portland Trail Blazers +135 over LA Clippers / 1st Quarter
Portland is playing their second straight home game, and they come into this game off of an ugly loss to the Spurs. The Clippers, however, come in on a high note after blowing out the Wizards yesterday at home.
It is likely Portland comes out playing with more intensity early, and I figure this first quarter should be a PICK’EM at worst. LA is good, but the Clippers figure to come into this game a little over confident, and they should have a tough time matching the Trail Blazers intensity early.
As we enter into the final month or so of the NBA regular season I wanted to post an updated record.
After today’s games my record is: 217-288-8 (-67.23 units; ROI: -13.31%)
This will obviously be a losing season for me, the first ever (after I knew better, that is :lol:). I am just a part timer, and I don’t expect to make a living off of sports betting income. I do, however, expect to make a profit, something I haven’t done this year.
Thanks to sound money management I still have roughly 32% of my bankroll left, and I’m still around trying to grind out whatever late season profit I can possibly hope for.
Unfortunately my record keeping and time dedicated to handicapping has been less than enough to generate any type of long-term winning streak. I look forward to clearing my schedule up for MLB.
Texas -3 (-105) over LSU
Texas is arguably the best team left in the tournament, and they will likely win this game. This number should likely be 6-8. LSU played tough against the best team in the nation, and won, and it will be tough for them to do the same twice in a row.
Connecticut -8 (-102) over George Mason
We will finally see if George Mason is for real, as they’re going against one of the best teams in the country in UConn. This should likely be a double digit win for Connecticut.
LA Clippers -194 over the Washington Wizards
The Clippers are coming off a road trip that ended on a bad note, so I look for them to play with focus and intensity in this mid-afternoon start.
This is Washington’s second game in the road trip, and they are coming off a game vs Utah in which they broke a few three point shooting records.
The Clippers have done a pretty good job of taking care of teams from the East when at home in LA, and the Wizards haven’t really burned many people on the road, especially strong teams in the West.
The type of shooting performance the Wizards had vs Utah isn’t their typical form, and I like for them to revert back to normal form. The Clippers should win this game roughly 71% of the time, and at -194 odds this line should provide a decent return.
Atlanta Hawks +7.5 (-109) over the Dallas Mavericks
On paper this game pits a Western conference powerhouse, Dallas, against an Eastern conference bottom feeder, Atlanta.
As detailed in today’s news and notes, Dallas has been dealing with some tough depth issues that have caused the team to perform worse than their typical form. This doesn’t bode well for Dallas, as Atlanta is looking to be the spoiler the rest of the season.
Atlanta is obviously a “bad” team, but they have done a good job this year of “getting up” for the big teams when playing at home. They’ve done a good job against the likes of Detroit, Phoenix, etc. when playing in their friendly confines.
Dallas will want to do whatever they can to get a win, especially after the bad loss to Golden State at home, but Atlanta won’t roll over easily and the weapons available to them at the moment don’t bode well for a blowout.
Lastly, Dallas goes on to face Detroit in their next game, and there’s a good chance they’re spending more time and energy game planning the Pistons than they are Atlanta. After all, they know there is no chance they’ll face the Hawks in the NBA finals.
Denver Nuggets +9 (-105) over the Phoenix Suns
Denver played last night, yes, but 9 points on the road at Phoenix? Stoudamire looks to play 20 minutes or so tonight, and he’s expectedly sore after the Portland game.
Denver is a much better team than the Trail Blazers, and Amare won’t have an easy go of it tonight. Phoenix hasn’t typically blown out the stronger teams from the West this year, and that should continue tonight. Denver, too, plays pretty good on the road versus the top West teams.
Even with Denver playing last night this game should only be 4-5 points in favor of Phoenix.
