San Francisco Giants +101 (B Webb/M Cain)
Like the Reds, the Giants are going for the home sweep of Arizona. I figure the Giants to win this game 55% of the time, so odds of +101 presents good value for the Giants.
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Chicago Bulls +141
The Heat should be favored to win this game, but not by this much. Miami hasn’t been very impressive on the road this year, and for a line that should be just a small Heat favorite (closer to -115), then I figure the Bulls at +141 to provide good value.
Sacramento Kings +160
The Spurs should be slight favorites to win this game, but they shouldn’t be favored by this much. The Kings have a pretty good shot at taking game 4, and this number should provide a good return over the long haul.
Cincinnati Reds +101 (T Buchholz/E Ramirez)
The Reds are going for the home sweep of the Astros today, and I figure they win this game 55% of the time. As such, getting odds of +101 for what I feel is -122 presents good value.
Milwaukee Bucks +255
The “safe” play is to take Milwaukee +6, but the most bang for your buck is with the Bucks at +255. The break even for this line is under 30%, and I figure the Bucks to win this game much more than 30% of the time.
Detroit is the best team in the East, but this line is too high for the matchup. Bucks will also be playing with desperation, so look for a good long haul return with a number like this.
Indiana Pacers +116
The Pacers should still be favored to win this game. The Nets are at best a 50/50 road team, while the Pacers have a fairly good home court advantage. More often than not the Pacers win this game, so the value lies with them at this number.
Chicago White Sox / LAA Angels UNDER 8.5 (+113) (F Garcia/J Weaver)
Both Garcia and Weaver have astronomical ERAs (by their standards), but in LA a ton of runs scored isn’t the norm.
Anaheim is a good pitcher’s park, and that should be what you see a more often than not. As such, getting odds at +113 presents good value.
Cleveland Cavaliers / Washington Wizards OVER 193 (-107)
These two teams aren’t defensive power houses, they’ve just failed to shoot to form in Cleveland. In Washington the Wizards also look to push the ball, and they typically reach the century mark at home.
I figure this total should really be slightly over 200, and the tempo / pace of this game should be much higher than what was seen in Cleveland.
Indiana Pacers -1 (-104)
New Jersey is a roughly 50% team on the road, while Indiana has a definate home court advantage. Regardless of Peja’s status the Pacers should be favored by more than 1 in this game, and they should win closer to 60% of the time.
Miami Heat / Chicago Bulls UNDER 200 (-104)
The Bulls will want to slow the game down and keep the Heat from scoring 110+ again. They know they won’t be able to win if they don’t stop Miami, and they should be able to control the tempo tonight. Look for a game closer to 190.
Los Angeles Clippers / Denver Nuggets OVER 191.5 (-107)
The Nuggets love to push the ball at home, and that’s the only way they’re going to be able to neutralize Brand without K-Mart. Don’t worry about the K-Mart suspension, though, as Denver played a good number of games without him. I’d be concerned with their mentality, but it seems the team is a little pissed off at K-Mart.
Oakland Athletics / Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 (+117) (R Harden/K Loe)
Texas is up there with Coors field as a true hitters park. This game will be played under the bright sun, and this number should be favored. As such, getting +117 presents good value for my money.
Arizona D-Backs +128 (O Hernandez/W Williams)
Arizona is going for the road sweep today, and teams in this situation figure to win 50% of the time. I see no reason for that to change in this matchup, so getting a number of +128 presents good value.
