New York Liberty +14.5 (-105)
The Liberty fell apart at the end in their most recent game at Indiana, and they ended up losing by 21. In this matchup they will face Detroit, a team that hasn’t blown anyone out yet in this young season.
When the Liberty lose this game they should, more often than not, do so by 14 points or less.
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D. Wade assists OVER 7.50 (+198)
Wade does a pretty good job of sharing the ball on the road compared to when the Heat play in Miami.
I agree that the OVER shouldn’t be favored in this situation, but a price of +198 looks to provide value for a proposition I figure to occur close to 45% of the time. I figure the true odds to be closer to +125, so at this price I figure to be get a good return over the long haul.
Today closes out the month of May and I find value with three teams looking to sweep their opponent:
Kansas City Royals +210 (S Elarton/J Blanton)
The Royals haven’t played all that well so far this year, but they’ve won the first two in Oakland. A price of +210 is a bit much, but the majority of the betting population probably feels this is about right as the popular opinion is that Oakland doesn’t get swept by the lowly Royals. I figure the Royals have a much better chance to win than this line would indicate, and I figure a nice return over the long haul with them at this price in this situation.
Florida Marlins +148 (J Schmidt/J Johnson)
The Marlins are looking to get the home sweep over the Giants, and with Schmidt on the hill I can see why San Francisco is over valued here. I figure Florida wins this game at least 50% of the time, so I also figure this price to provide a good return over the long haul.
Los Angeles Dodgers +146 (B Tomko/T Hudson)
The Braves have made a decent run as of late, but they’re looking to avoid being swept by the Dodgers. Like the Marlins I figure the Dodgers to win this game closer to 50% of the time, so a good return is expected over the long haul.
New York Liberty +12 (-110)
The season is still young, and tonight the Liberty visit the Fever. Indiana is the only unbeaten left in the WNBA, and New York has been less than spectacular so far.
Giving the Liberty 12 points, however, looks to provide value with the Liberty. The non vig money line for this game equates to the Fever winning approximately 90% of the time. Even if this is the case, New York should either win or lose by 11 or less often enough to provide a decent return at a price of -110.
A portion of the NBA playoffs I try not to overlook is the prop section. To garner more action most sportsbooks will offer a wide variety of props for the bettor looking for something different.
Most of the sides and totals are fairly sharp, but you can sometimes find value with the various propositions.
In tonight’s game I find value with one of the propositions:
C. Billups assists OVER 7.5 (+111)
For statistics like assists and rebounds you can use a poisson distribution to calculate odds for various OVER/UNDER propositions.
In this case with Billups his average assists on the road is 8.4 for the season. Using these numbers the odds for getting at least 8 assists is approximately 60.13%. At the posted odds of +111 the expected return is roughly 27.11%.
Not only is this a good expected return, but Billups should get at least 8 assists more often than not so my expected risk is low.
Today’s card is filled with teams looking to sweep their opponent, and I find value with the following teams at the listed price:
Toronto Blue Jays +117 (J Garland/T Taubenheim)
Arizona D-Backs +160 (E Gonzalez/B Arroyo)
Milwaukee Brewers +137 (D Eveland/R Madson)
Toronto is going for the home sweep of the White Sox, and although popular opinion says the White Sox can’t lose to the Blue Jays against a rookie, history says otherwise and I figure Toronto wins this game more often than not providing a decent return at +117.
The D-Backs and Brewers are going for the road sweep of their respective opponents, and I figure both games to be clsoer to a 50/50 shot. As such, getting prices of +160 and +137 provide good value for my money.
St Louis Cardinals / San Diego Padres UNDER 8.5 (+111) (S Ponson/C Park)
San Diego is a pitchers park, and the weather conditions today don’t look to adversely affect this total either way. Neither pitcher is a “bum”, and in a large park that figures to keep the total down more often than not, value is had with the UNDER at +111.
Los Angeles Dodgers / Washington Nationals UNDER 8 (+122) (B Tomko/L Hernandez)
The weather in DC will favor the UNDER in this game, and I see no reason why the OVER should be favored based on the performance of these pitchers.
I figure the UNDER should be a slight favorite, and value is had with the UNDER at this price.
Florida Marlins +126 (G Maddux/B Moehler)
Don’t be fooled by Maddux here. The Marlins are going for the home sweep of the Cubs, and they should get it done more times than not. I figure the Marlins to at least have a 50/50 shot in this game, so a price of +126 presents good value.
Boston Red Sox +123 (L Dinardo/C Lidle)
Minnesota Twins +175 (B Bonser/C Capuano)
Colorado Rockies +104 (T Lilly/J Fogg)
Arizona D-Backs +129 (T Hudson/J Cruz)
All four of these teams are going for the sweep of their opponent today.
Boston and Minnesota are on the road, while Colorado and Arizona are at home.
Typically you can count on the home team to sweep their opponent at least 55% of the time, so getting odds of +101 or better presents good value. Also, you can typically count on the road team to sweep their opponent roughly 50% of the time, so getting odds of +120 or better presents good value.
