Posted by Ryan

I received an e-mail yesterday from a reader, Kyle, asking where to find the +2.5 run lines. In case you’re in the same situation as him, you can find them at most major online sports books, including: Pinnacle, TheGreek, 5Dimes, Bookmaker, Bodog, and more. These are very small markets, so places like Vegas and other smaller books do not carry them.

Now that you know where you can find these types of bets, here are the two prices I’ve bet for tonight’s games:

Boston Red Sox -2.5 (+145) (J Suppan/D Matsuzaka)
% of Bankroll: 0.52%

Tampa Bay Rays +2.5 (-320) (A Sonnastine/B Looper)
% of Bankroll: 0.87%

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Posted by Ryan

There is a decent amount of value out there today, the best of which exists with some small favorites that are being listed with favorable odds at +2.5 runs. These aren’t currently priced correctly, so go get you some EV!

The 6 prices I bet are:

Los Angeles Dodgers +2.5 (-285) (C Billingsley/B Sheets)
% of Bankroll: 0.50%
Detroit Tigers +2.5 (-320) (K Rogers/G Meche)
% of Bankroll: 1.98%
Yankees @ Devil Rays: NYY Team Total under 4.5 (-145)
% of Bankroll: 0.95%
Florida Marlins +2.5 (-290) (A Miller/M Belisle)
% of Bankroll: 0.59%
Rockies @ D-Backs: COL Team Total under 4 (-145)
% of Bankroll: 0.64%
Chicago White Sox +2.5 (-340) (J Vazquez/J Garland)
% of Bankroll: 1.63%

Posted by Ryan

There hasn’t been a lot of action to be had in the NHL playoffs lately, but tonight’s game has a price worth betting:

Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (+160)
% of Bankroll: 0.63%

You can also bet +155 for a smaller price, but obviously there isn’t a lot of value left when you get down to prices that are less than +160.

Posted by Ryan

The MLB is back in full swing tonight, and I’ve been able to find the following value:

Oakland Athletics +2.5 (-280) (J Duchscherer/P Byrd)
% of Bankroll: 1.34%
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore Team Total under 4 (-160)
% of Bankroll: 1.00%
Seattle Mariners -2.5 (+210) (F Hernandez/K Gabbard)
% of Bankroll: 0.59%
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs: San Diego Team Total under 6 (-120)
% of Bankroll: 1.42%

I would bet all of these for a very small line change except for Seattle -2.5.

Posted by Ryan

There are only a handful of MLB games tonight, thus there is only a small amount of value to be had.

Based on the currently available prices, the following team total prices have a small amount of value:

Minnesota Team Total under 4.5 (-120)
% of Bankroll: 0.83%
San Francisco Team Total under 3.5 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.58%

Posted by Ryan

The best bet I can find is with the Jays +2.5, but of course I don’t expect that price to last for very long. It’s a decent edge with a high chance of winning, so someone will be pouncing on it soon enough.

The rest are team totals that I would not bet at the currently available alternate prices.

The 4 prices I bet are:

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants: SF Team Total under 4 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.50%
Toronto Blue Jays +2.5 (-280) (D Mcgowan/A Laffey)
% of Bankroll: 1.50%
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals: BAL Team Total over 4.5 (+115)
% of Bankroll: 0.63%
Houston Astros @ L.A. Dodgers: LAD Team Total under 5 (-130)
% of Bankroll: 0.96%

Posted by Ryan

There are some small edges in the rest of today’s games, and the Phillies bets represent a couple more bets with negative correlation.

I would not consider betting any of these at alternative prices.

The 4 prices I bet are:

Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 (-255) (B Myers/B Webb)
% of Bankroll: 0.63%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: PHI Team Total under 4 (-140)
% of Bankroll: 0.74%

Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays: TAM Team Total over 4.5 (+115)
% of Bankroll: 0.85%

Baltimore Orioles +2.5 (-330) (D Cabrera/L Hochevar)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%

Posted by Ryan

Today’s first is with an early game, as the Mets +2.5 -300 is a profitable price.

The other two bets are team totals with games that are taking place later. The only one I’d consider betting at an alternate price is the Twins team total, as over 4 -105 is still worth a small bet.

The 3 prices I bet are:

New York Mets +2.5 (-300) (J Maine/B Penny)
% of Bankroll: 1.03%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: MIN Team Total over 4 (+100)
% of Bankroll: 1.11%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies: COL Team Total under 4.5 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.71%

Posted by Ryan

Most of the value I can find currently is with team totals, although I have bet one alternative +2.5 run line:

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers: DET Team Total over 5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 1.10%
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves: ATL Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.59%
Washington Nationals +2.5 (-280) (S Hill/S Chacon)
% of Bankroll: 0.64%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: CWS Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.75%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: ARI Team Total over 5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 0.65%

Posted by Ryan

There are currently two prices that are positive expected value bets yet are negatively correlated. Although possible, this means there isn’t a high chance of losing both bets. In fact, there is a decent chance you will win both.

More specifically, these prices are:

Boston Red Sox +2.5 (-320) (D Matsuzaka/J Bonderman)
% of Bankroll: 1.84%

Boston Team Total under 4.5 (+110)
% of Bankroll: 0.83%