I’ve finally updated the money management guide to incorporate the Kelly criterion, so give it a read and let me know what you think!
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I’m heading to Las Vegas tonight, and I’ve got no idea if I’ll be sober enough to update the blog.
Don’t worry, though, as I’ve got a special treat to help keep everyone busy while I’m away, so stay tuned.
If you’ve ever wanted to know how to calculate the no-vigorish, or mid-market, price for a proposition listed at your favorite sportsbook then checkout the newest article I’ve added to SmartCapper.com: Calculating the No-Vigorish Price
The no-vigorish price can come in handy, especially if you just want to get a quick feel of how often the market expects specific propositions to take place.
I’ve added a new tool to SmartCapper.com: a Geometric Distribution Calculator.
You can use the Geometric Distribution Calculator to calculate the probability of obtaining a specific number of failures of a chance event before obtaining a success.
This can be useful to know when you’ve hit a bad patch and you want to know how likely not having a success for a given event is.
Also, this tool shows the number of failures that can take place before there is a 99% or greater probability of obtaining a success.
Go give the Geometric Distribution Calculator a spin and let me know if you have any problems with it.
I’ve integrated a new site navigation into SmartCapper.com that implements popup menus when you hover over a main menu item. This makes the website much easier to navigate, but if you encounter problems with it please let me know.
I’d like to introduce a new piece of software that will soon be a part of the NBA basketball handicapping software: the NBA market analyzer.
The NBA market analyzer allows you to view what the market’s expectations for a game are.
Every lined game has a money line and point spread, but a majority of bettors focus solely on the point spread. Because of this, value is often available with one side or the other. You can use the NBA market analyzer to find these situations.
The NBA market analyzer analyzes the current money line for a game to produce a no-vigorish money line (essentially the true odds for the game according to the market), and then it uses this data to create point spread expectations for both teams.
You can also use the NBA market analyzer to gauge pertinent information. Odds you create for a game based on your handicapping techniques aren’t typically far off from the market price, and if they are you need to know why. Using the NBA market analyzer you can identify possible games where you might be missing out on pertinent information.
As of now this tool is in beta status and will be modified to allow you to change money line and point spread odds to recalculate expectations in the event the odds the NBA market analyzer shows are unavailable to you.
Also, after the all star break the NBA market analyzer will be integrated into the NBA basketball handicapping software, so make sure you check it out now!
Enjoy, and leave a comment if you have an issue and/or suggestion!
If you’ve had any problems with smartcapper.com over the past day and a half, I apologize.
An update to some of the server software caused everything on the site, except for this blog, to break!
All appears to be fixed now, and everything is currently being updated. If you notice any issues please let me know!
A new tool is available at smartcapper.com: an NFL point spread calculator.
URL: http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_nfl_point_spread_calculator.html
This calculator allows you to calculate point spread odds for preseason, regular season, and postseason NFL games.
The margin of victory in an NFL game is a chance event, but by using the distribution of actual NFL margins of victory this tool allows you to calculate sophisticated point spread odds.
Simply select which distribution you wish to use (preseason, regular season, or postseason), select where the game is taking place at (home, away, neutral field), and enter the team’s expected winning percentage to calculate the true point spread odds for the event.
For example: In tonight’s preseason game I figure the Colts have a 65% chance of winning the game. By using the calculator, the true point spread odds are approximately Indianapolis -3.5 (+104), so getting the Colts at -3 (+118) presents good value.
My e-Book, Smart Pro Football Handicapping, is now available. The e-Book covers many aspects of handicapping NFL games. Check out the details at the URL below.
http://www.smartcapper.com/smart_pro_football_handicapping.html
Make sure you download the sample chapter:
http://www.smartcapper.com/Smart_Pro_Football_Handicapping_Sample_Chapter.pdf
The answer is fairly simple: because they don’t know any better. Take a look at this clip from The Daily Show, and you’ll see why.
