Posted by Ryan

There are some small edges in the rest of today’s games, and the Phillies bets represent a couple more bets with negative correlation.

I would not consider betting any of these at alternative prices.

The 4 prices I bet are:

Philadelphia Phillies +2.5 (-255) (B Myers/B Webb)
% of Bankroll: 0.63%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: PHI Team Total under 4 (-140)
% of Bankroll: 0.74%

Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays: TAM Team Total over 4.5 (+115)
% of Bankroll: 0.85%

Baltimore Orioles +2.5 (-330) (D Cabrera/L Hochevar)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%

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Posted by Ryan

Today’s first is with an early game, as the Mets +2.5 -300 is a profitable price.

The other two bets are team totals with games that are taking place later. The only one I’d consider betting at an alternate price is the Twins team total, as over 4 -105 is still worth a small bet.

The 3 prices I bet are:

New York Mets +2.5 (-300) (J Maine/B Penny)
% of Bankroll: 1.03%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: MIN Team Total over 4 (+100)
% of Bankroll: 1.11%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies: COL Team Total under 4.5 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 0.71%

Posted by Ryan

Most of the value I can find currently is with team totals, although I have bet one alternative +2.5 run line:

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers: DET Team Total over 5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 1.10%
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves: ATL Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.59%
Washington Nationals +2.5 (-280) (S Hill/S Chacon)
% of Bankroll: 0.64%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox: CWS Team Total over 4.5 (+105)
% of Bankroll: 0.75%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona D-Backs: ARI Team Total over 5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 0.65%

Posted by Ryan

There are currently two prices that are positive expected value bets yet are negatively correlated. Although possible, this means there isn’t a high chance of losing both bets. In fact, there is a decent chance you will win both.

More specifically, these prices are:

Boston Red Sox +2.5 (-320) (D Matsuzaka/J Bonderman)
% of Bankroll: 1.84%

Boston Team Total under 4.5 (+110)
% of Bankroll: 0.83%

Posted by Ryan

First, in MLB, I find value with the following team total:

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics: OAK Team Total o5 (+125)
% of Bankroll: 0.94%

Team totals can vary from book to book, so if you can’t find a similar price then it is probably a bad bet.

For the NHL playoffs, tonight’s San Jose / Dallas game has a small edge:

San Jose Sharks +1.5 (-250)
% of Bankroll: 0.79%

You could also bet -255, but that’s a much smaller bet. 0.79% is pretty small as it is.

Posted by Ryan

I’ve finally completed my spring courses and associated tests, papers, and final exams. This means I’m finally able to get around to tracking the bets I’ve made in April. I have about 12 more days to go. I hope to have an April results post tonight.

There are some stale alternate lines hanging out there for tonight’s MLB games, and while I don’t expect them to last forever, I figure someone might be able to get some EV from these.

The 5 prices I’ve bet are:

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians: KC Team Total u4 (-155)
% of Bankroll: 1.59%
Chicago White Sox +2.5 (-265) (M Buehrle/S Marcum)
% of Bankroll: 0.86%
Detroit Tigers -2.5 (+190) (A Galarraga/L Hernandez)
% of Bankroll: 0.70%
Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-300) (R Hill/A Wainwright)
% of Bankroll: 1.25%
New York Mets +2.5 (-280) (J Maine/M Owings)
% of Bankroll: 0.75%

Posted by Ryan

There isn’t a lot to be had in this prime time game from what I can find, but there is one price worth betting if you can find it:

Detroit Tigers Team Total under 5 (-125)
% of Bankroll: 1.29%

The under 4.5 -115 is a -EV bet, so if you can’t find this sort of price then it is best to pass.

Posted by Ryan

I ended up with the goose egg last night, as the Angels and Yankees both failed to cover the -1.5 and -2.5, respectively. The White Sox game was postponed, so that ended up being a push.

There is a little bit of value available today, and from the currently available prices, this is what I’ve bet:

Arizona +1.5 (-250)
% of Bankroll: 0.92%
Angels Team Total under 5 (-120)
% of Bankroll: 0.86%
Phillies Team Total over 5 (-105)
% of Bankroll: 0.72%
Red Sox -2.5 (+190)
% of Bankroll: 0.53%

Also, if you’ve bet the Orioles/White Sox game 2 earlier today, be aware that the White Sox have changed their pitcher to Buehrle.

Posted by Ryan

The never-ending business continues, as I’m going out of town for the weekend for a wedding.

I have, however, bet the following alternate run lines for tonight’s games:

Angels -1.5 (+160)
% of Bankroll: 0.58%
Yankees -2.5 (+210)
% of Bankroll: 0.87%
White Sox -2.5 (+220)
% of Bankroll: 0.81%

Posted by Ryan

There are actually two good bets available in this game, but I’ve only bet one of them as my bankroll isn’t large enough to bet both.

The price I actually bet is:

San Diego Padres Team Total u3.5 (-115)
% of Bankroll: 1.53%

The other good bet is San Francisco +2.5 -300, a bet worth about 2.25%. The bankroll growth is actually larger with the Padres team total bet, thus I bet that one instead. You can risk more on the Giants +2.5 simply because you expect to win it more often than you do the Padres team total under.