Posted by Ryan

I was content with not having a bet on this Super Bowl with historic possibilities, but a late market survey has got me on the under 54.5 at -110.

From what I understand this is the apex of the total (once the opponents were known, at least), and with the total opening at an already high location, I’ll gladly risk a little on the under at this price.

New York Giants / New England Patriots UNDER 54.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 1%

I’m not expecting a huge edge with this bet, but if you’ve got to have action on the game then I don’t see how you can go wrong with this bet.

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Posted by Ryan

It’s Christmas eve, and what could be better than watching some Monday night football?

The spread currently sits at Chargers by 9, but of course I left that alone and bet some quarter totals instead.

The value is good, but not quite as good as in yesterday’s Dolphins vs. Pats game. Regardless, these are good bets if you can get them.

Whatever you do, don’t go betting the family’s Christmas gifts on the games.

Denver Broncos / San Diego Chargers UNDER 9.5 (+110) 1st Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.17%
Denver Broncos / San Diego Chargers UNDER 14.5 (-120) 2nd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 3.33%
Denver Broncos / San Diego Chargers UNDER 10 (-125) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.80%

UPDATE: I just want to point out that the original post had the 1st and 3rd quarters mixed up. I’ve fixed it now.

Posted by Ryan

The quarter lines are finally posted for today’s games. The delay was probably due to some questionable weather conditions.

There doesn’t look to be a whole lot out there as far as quarters go. The late posting plus early movement caused very little left overs once I valued all of the games. As such, I’ve only got 6 bets:

Kansas City Chiefs / Detroit Lions UNDER 7.5 (+110) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.09%
Philadelphia Eagles / New Orleans Saints UNDER 10 (-120) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.64%
Philadelphia Eagles / New Orleans Saints UNDER 13 (+110) 4th Quarter
% of Bankroll: 0.85%

Miami Dolphins / New England Patriots UNDER 9.5 (+105) 1st Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.29%
Miami Dolphins / New England Patriots UNDER 14 (-115) 2nd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.58%
Miami Dolphins / New England Patriots UNDER 10 (-120) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 4.62%

UPDATE: The Texans/Colts 1st quarter under 7.5 at +105 or better is a good bet. This was listed at +115 when I first valued these, but when I went to bet it was at +100, so I passed. Now it’s back up to +110, so it’s worth about 2.5%.

Posted by Ryan

I was hoping for some better numbers, but with just an hour until the game kicks off these are probably as good as it’s going to get.

Everything else I see has no value, like the 1st quarter under or 2nd quarter under 13.5 -120.

Dallas Cowboys / Carolina Panthers UNDER 13 (+100) 2nd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 0.82%
Dallas Cowboys / Carolina Panthers UNDER 7.5 (-110) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 0.65%
Dallas Cowboys / Carolina Panthers UNDER 10.5 (-105) 4th Quarter
% of Bankroll: 0.51%

Posted by Ryan

Numbers are finally starting to pop up that are worth betting in this game.

You can bet the 1st and 3rd quarters for very small amounts up to -115 and -105, respectively. The 2nd quarter is a -EV bet at under 13.5 -120 or higher, so those would not be good bets.

Pittsburgh Steelers / St. Louis Rams UNDER 7.5 (-110) 1st Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers / St. Louis Rams UNDER 13 (+115) 2nd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers / St. Louis Rams UNDER 7.5 (+100) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.06%

Posted by Ryan

Be careful with any game that takes place in the northeast today. The weather forecast doesn’t look very good for most of these games. There is little to no line value left with these games, so I’ve passed on them myself.

If things turn around you might be able to catch a good number, but always keep in mind the number you’re betting into.

This week I ended up betting three 1st half lines. In weeks past I haven’t had many 1st half lines to bet.

This happens for two reasons. First, a lot of 1st half lines are priced correctly. Second, for games in which the 1st half line isn’t priced correctly, the combined value of betting the 1st quarter and/or 2nd quarter makes it correct to bet the quarter(s) instead of the 1st half.

The most value looks to be in the Eagles/Cowboys game. Here are my 9 bets for Sunday’s games:

Green Bay Packers / St Louis Rams UNDER 7.5 (+110) 1st Quarter; 1.98%
Arizona Cardinals / New Orleans Saints UNDER 24.5 (-105) 1st Half; 1.60%
Atlanta Falcons / Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 19 (-105) 1st Half; 1.73%
Green Bay Packers / St Louis Rams UNDER 7.5 (+125) 3rd Quarter; 2.65%
Arizona Cardinals / New Orleans Saints UNDER 10 (-105) 3rd Quarter; 1.18%

Philadelphia Eagles / Dallas Cowboys UNDER 24.5 (-110) 1st Half; 2.42%
Detroit Lions / San Diego Chargers UNDER 10 (-125) 3rd Quarter; 2.57%
Philadelphia Eagles / Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 (+100) 3rd Quarter; 3.43%
Philadelphia Eagles / Dallas Cowboys UNDER 13 (+120) 4th Quarter; 0.68%

Posted by Ryan

As I illustrated earlier, for all practical purposes you can treat individual quarters as independent events for bet sizing purposes.

What I failed to do, however, is to make note of when you should be wary of betting NFL quarters.

When you should not bet NFL quarters

You should not bet NFL quarters when you’re not very sure about the fair odds for the game in question.

Making one negative EV bet is bad. Making multiple negative EV bets is worse.

There are some instances in which I’ve thrown a game out for betting purposes due to the large amount of value that appears for all quarters. This is a sign that I’ve missed something, so it’s better to pass unless I can figure out why.

This is an example of how Kelly betting can keep you honest. Anytime you figure to have a large edge on a given wager you must be confident in the edge to bet it as the Kelly criterion suggests. If you don’t, you just might end up with a downswing that you can’t attribute to variance alone.

Calculating fair NFL quarter odds

To calculate NFL quarter odds checkout the NFL point spread value and NFL total value calculators.

Posted by Ryan

Houston opened as a small favorite, and based on recent games this is a number that looked to be about right. Denver has since been bet up to a 1 point favorite, so this game figures to be a coin flip. I wouldn’t suggest betting either side.

I’m betting a few quarter totals for this game, some of which have more value than others. This past week has me on a downswing, as I went 5-12-1. Not very good, but streaks such as this are part of the roller coaster ride.

Here’s what I’ve got for this game:

Denver Broncos / Houston Texans UNDER 10 (-125) 1st Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.98%
Denver Broncos / Houston Texans UNDER 10 (-115) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 2.39%
Denver Broncos / Houston Texans UNDER 13 (+110) 4th Quarter
% of Bankroll: 0.61%

You can bet the 1st and 3rd quarters at alternate prices, albeit for smaller bets. As for the 4th quarter, don’t bet under 13.5 -105, as that is a fair price. There is very little value with under 13 +110 as it is.

Posted by Ryan

The time to bet the Falcons has come and gone, as they opened as 5 point underdogs. They’re now 3.5 point underdogs, so they’re not likely a good bet anymore.

There is a little total value out there, though. Specifically in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Don’t bet the 1st quarter at -115 or higher, and don’t bet the 3rd quarter at -105 or higher.

New Orleans Saints / Atlanta Falcons UNDER 7.5 (-110) 1st Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.09%
New Orleans Saints / Atlanta Falcons UNDER 7.5 (+100) 3rd Quarter
% of Bankroll: 1.63%

Posted by Ryan

It looks like you can’t go wrong with betting most any under in this week’s Steelers/Patriots or Colts/Ravens games.

This isn’t the only value out there, but you’ll have to shop around for the right prices for the other games.

I’ve got 16 bets this week, and here they are listed from highest to lowest value:

MIN/SF 3Q UNDER 7.5 -115 2.97%
IND/BAL 3Q UNDER 7.5 +100 2.60%
NYG/PHI 3Q UNDER 7.5 +100 2.45%
PIT/NE 1Q UNDER 10 -120 2.41%
PIT/NE 2Q UNDER 16.5 -125 2.41%
SD/TEN 3Q UNDER 7.5 -115 2.36%
PIT/NE 3Q UNDER 10 -110 1.97%
ARI/SEA 3Q UNDER 7.5 +110 1.79%
IND/BAL 2Q UNDER 13.5 -115 1.82%
IND/BAL 4Q UNDER 10.5 +100 1.61%
PIT/NE 4Q UNDER 14 -120 1.42%
SD/TEN 2Q UNDER 13 -115 1.32%
IND/BAL 1Q UNDER 7.5 -115 1.18%
ARI/SEA 4Q UNDER 13 -110 1.15%
MIN/SF 1Q UNDER 7.5 -135 0.79%
ARI/SEA 1Q UNDER 7.5 -105 0.60%