Seems like some very sharp lines have been dealt in the WNBA over the recent weeks, but there finally appears to be value out there today.
LA Sparks +10.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 2.7502%
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LA Sparks +10 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.4613%
This is isn’t a bet you should risk a lot on, but if +10.5 -110 pops up don’t be afraid to risk a bit more. I see no value in betting anything under +10.
Houston Comets +7 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.8288%
This is a game in which I want to make sure I get at least a 7, as at this price the Comets aren’t worth a whole lot. If a 7.5 becomes available then a larger bet is in order, although I expect this price to hit 6.5 more often than 7.5.
New York Liberty +10.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 1.8998%
This moved to +10 overnight, but has now been bet back to +10.5, a much better price than +10. In fact, if you can’t get +10.5 you should pass, as +10 is a roughly 51% bet that is -EV at -110 odds.
UPDATE: New York can now be had at +11, a number with a roughly 55% chance of winning. As such, I’ve added a little more to complete the full 2.7502% this number is worth. You might be able to get +11.5 later, so if you feel this is likely then wait and go for 2.7502% at that number.
LA Sparks +11 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 2.7502%
The lower end of a 99% confidence interval suggests the true odds for the Sparks +11 to be ~57%. I, however, limit myself to betting at true odds of 55% in these situations to keep from over betting. I’m mentioning this because if you can’t get +11 you can still get +10.5, and the true odds at +10.5 are roughly 55%. As such, I’d risk the same amount at +10.5 if that’s all I could get.
Obviously try and get 11 if you can.
Connecticut Sun +6 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 0.9653%
Didn’t look like this would be available, but a few shops have moved back to 6 from 5.5. If you can’t get 6 then pass.
LA Sparks +6 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 2.7502%
A pretty reasonable price for the Sparks tonight, even though they needed a pretty big comeback during their last 2OT win. Take +5.5 if you can’t get +6, just do so for a slightly smaller amount.
Connecticut Sun +10.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 2.7502%
The Sun have been torched in their last two games at home, so this line might reach 11 or higher. Regardless, getting +10.5 is worth more than getting +10 such that it’s worth the risk of not getting +11.
New York Liberty +9.5 (-110)
% of Bankroll: 2.7502%
This game will be on ESPN2, so it just might reach 10 before game time. I’m not counting on it though, as +9.5 is a pretty favorable number for the Liberty tonight in Sacramento.
Going to see what I can find around Vegas today, but looks like the Nats +1.5 at +100 or better is a decent bet, and if the Sun climb to 10 they’re worth a look as well.
Oh, and it looks like I didn’t bring my power cable with me to Vegas.
UPDATE: I must be on crack. Not only do I have my power cable, but I was referring to the Connecticut Sun, not the Sacramento Monarchs, and in reality if the Spars climb up to 6 or so then they might be worth a look as well.
