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Chance by Amir D. Aczel is a good guide to probability for the layperson. Although this book doesn't directly cover techniques for handicapping sports, it can prove to be invaluable if you are looking for an understanding of probability and the odds you are playing into.
Chance also provides a section on subjective probability. The odds of the outcome of a sporting event aren't as clear cut as the odds of drawing the Ace of Spades out of a deck of 52 cards. This type of probability is objective, but rarely are the odds of a sporting event objective in nature. Aczel does a good job of explaining subjective probability in a manner that should be helpful in calculating the odds of a sporting event.
Another key section to this book for the sports bettor is on the gambler's ruin. Although you shouldn't be wagering on sporting events in which you have a negative expectation, an understanding of the gambler's ruin will give you a better appreciation for why money management is so important.
If you are looking for a textbook guide to probability then you should probably look elsewhere. If you are looking for a basic guide to probability, however, then this is the book for you.
Although this book is small in size, it does a good job of present the basic laws of probability to someone unfamiliar with the subject. Understanding probability and the odds you are playing into is a key to sports handicapping success, and this book does a good job of providing the foundation.
I give this book a three out of five on the Benjamin scale.
- Ryan J. Parker | Ryan's sports handicapping blog
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