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General Sports Betting Articles
Football Handicapping Articles
Baseball Handicapping Articles
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Smart Pro Football Handicapping is a must read for anyone wanting to be a successful NFL point spread and total handicapper. This e-Book provides sophisticated handicapping techniques that you can use to consistently find profitable betting opportunities against common NFL propositions.
This e-Book provides something for handicappers of every level. The e-Book starts with the basics of sports betting, and is followed by a valuable section on money management, which is the #1 difference between winning and losing sports bettors.
Part II of this e-Book covers every aspect of handicapping the NFL. Key topics include:
- Preseason Handicapping
- Understand preseason motivations to find profitable situations
- Regular Season Handicapping
- Understand key point spread and total numbers
- Create your own sophisticated odds using recent team performance
- Subjective Factors
- Understand how injuries, weather, distractions, and other subjective factors affect the outcome of NFL games
- Postseason Handicapping
- Differences between handicapping the playoffs and regular season
- Super Bowl
- Pro Bowl
This book teaches you the mathematical and subjective techniques you can use to create you own sophisticated money line, point spread, and total odds that will help to make you a successful handicapper over the long-term.
A strong emphasis is placed on statistics, and this book will guide you through the basic statistical concepts that will allow you to use recent team performance to create sophisticated odds.
Make sure you download the sample chapter now. This excerpt is Chapter 6 covering subjective handicapping factors.
Purchase now!
-- If you aren't satisfied this e-Book has helped you become a better handicapper then you will receive a full refund!
Book stats:
- Format: e-Book (PDF)
- Pages: 156
- File size: 708,999 bytes (692 KB)
- Printable: YES
- Downloadable: YES
- ISBN-10: 0-9779047-0-9
- ISBN-13: 978-0-9779047-0-9
Smart Pro Football Handicapping
Table of Contents
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Part I: BASICS
Chapter 1: Sports Betting Basics
1.1 Where to Bet
1.1.1 Las Vegas, Nevada
1.1.2 Offshore Wagering
1.1.3 Illegal Bookmakers
1.1.4 Shopping
1.2 Common Betting Lines
1.2.1 Point Spread
1.2.2 Total Points Scored
1.2.3 Money Line
1.3 Types of Bets
1.4 Understanding Odds and Payouts
1.4.1 American Odds
1.4.2 Decimal Odds
1.4.3 Converting Between Odds Formats
1.5 Understanding Vigorish
1.5.1 Who Pays the Vigorish?
1.5.2 Theoretical and Practical Hold Percentages
1.5.3 Calculating the Cost of Vigorish
1.5.4 The Cost of Vigorish over the Long Haul
Chapter 2: Money Management
2.1 Purpose and Goals
2.2 Establishing a Bankroll
2.2.1 Risking Everything
2.3 Calculating Wager Size
2.3.1 Natural Variance and the Binomial Distribution
2.3.2 Money Line Odds
2.3.3 Recalculating Wager Size
2.3.4 The Lock Myth
2.4 Traps
2.4.1 Betting More or Less
2.4.2 Star Rating Systems
2.5 Summary
Part II: HANDICAPPING
Chapter 3: Statistics and Probability
3.1 Statistics
3.1.1 Graphical Data Plots
3.1.2 Mean and Median
3.1.3 Variance and Standard Deviation
3.2 Probability
3.2.1 Equal Chance Events
3.2.2 Relative Frequency
3.2.3 Law of Large Numbers
3.2.4 Conditional Probability
3.2.5 Joint Probability
3.2.6 Expectation / Return on Investment (ROI)
3.2.7 Binomial Distribution
3.2.8 Poisson Distribution
3.3 Summary
Chapter 4: Preseason
4.1 Using the Media
4.2 Key Preseason Factors
4.2.1 Coach Motivation
4.2.2 Team Motivation
4.2.3 Player Motivation
4.2.4 Quarterback Rotation
4.2.5 Position Battles
4.2.6 Depth of Talent
4.3 Week by Week
4.3.1 Week 1
4.3.2 Week 2
4.3.3 Week 3
4.3.4 Week 4
4.4 Home Field Advantage
4.5 Margin of Victory Distributions
4.5.1 Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
4.5.2 Home Team Margin of Victory Distribution
4.5.3 Away Team Margin of Victory Distribution
4.6 Total Points Scored Distributions
4.6.1 Overall Total Points Scored Distribution
4.6.2 Home Team Points For Distribution
4.6.3 Home Team Points Against Distribution
4.7 Summary
Chapter 5: Regular Season
5.1 The Money Line and Point Spread
5.1.1 Home Field Advantage
5.1.2 Margin of Victory Distributions
5.1.3 Calculating Money Line Odds
5.1.4 Calculating Point Spread Odds
5.1.5 Checking the Market Price
5.2 Total Points Scored
5.2.1 Total Points Scored Distributions
5.2.2 Creating Total Odds
5.3 Summary
Chapter 6: Subjective Factors
6.1 Injuries
6.1.1 Key Offensive Injuries
6.1.2 Key Defensive Injuries
6.2 Psychological Factors
6.2.1 Must Win Games
6.2.2 Revenge
6.2.3 Distractions
6.2.4 Divisional Sandwich Game
6.2.5 Division Clinching Teams
6.3 Weather
6.3.1 Extreme Temperatures
6.3.2 Precipitation
6.3.3 Extremely High Winds
6.3.4 Domes
6.4 Summary
Chapter 7: Postseason
7.1 Home Field Advantage
7.2 Margin of Victory Distributions
7.2.1 Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
7.2.2 Home Team Margin of Victory Distribution
7.2.3 Away Team Margin of Victory Distribution
7.3 Total Points Scored Distributions
7.3.1 Overall Total Points Scored Distribution
7.3.2 Home Team Points For Distribution
7.3.3 Home Team Points Against Distribution
7.4 Super Bowl
7.5 Pro Bowl
7.6 Summary
Part III: Appendixes
APPENDIX A: Money Line / Break Even Chart
APPENDIX B: Preseason Overall Margins of Victory
APPENDIX C: Preseason Home Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX D: Preseason Away Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX E: Preseason Overall Total Points Scored
APPENDIX F: Regular Season Overall Margins of Victory
APPENDIX G: Regular Season Home Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX H: Regular Season Away Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX I: Regular Season Overall Total Points Scored
APPENDIX J: Postseason Overall Margins of Victory
APPENDIX K: Postseason Home Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX L: Postseason Away Team Margins of Victory
APPENDIX M: Postseason Overall Total Points Scored
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